UNI Case study project - PM/Ops Focused
COMPANY
ROLE
EXPERTISE
Product/Ops
YEAR
🍱 + 🛵 = 💰
The Meal kit market in the U.S. has an expected compounded annual growth rate of 16.2%, higher than the online food delivery market's expected CAGR of 10.4%. This represents a $4.8B total addressable market in 2024, with approximately $285M capturable in Year 1 based on typical marketplace penetration rates.
THE AUDIENCE
In general, there are a lot of similarities between Uber Eats users and users who order packaged meals (like Freshly).
Uber Eats users
Ages: 54% are Millennials or Gen X
Attitudes: 60% of users order delivery to avoid shopping for & preparing meals
Personas:
Busy professionals (single, couples)
Parents
Elderly
College students
Travelers
Businesses/teams
Packaged Meal users*
Ages: 64% are Millennials or Gen X
Attitudes: 65% of users seek quick & easy meal solutions
Personas:
Busy professionals (single, couples) [prefer 6-8 AM delivery windows]
Parents [prefer 4-6 PM or weekend delivery]
Elderly
College students
Travelers
Sources: 1. Statista, 2. Numerator Insights, 3. Uber Eats Harris Poll
*Assumption: demographic data is similar between Cook & Eat and Heat & Eat segments.
USER INSIGHTS
Users seek cost-effective meal options
Users are looking for food options that won't breaking the bank, especially in 2022. If a user in NYC wanted to order 6 meals for the week, it could cost them $105-$135 including tip (Avg. $20/meal).
Packaged Meal services like Freshly cost an average of $13 after shipping (Avg $7 savings/meal).
This 35% cost reduction is achieved through batch delivery economics - one courier delivering 10 meals has a cost-per-delivery of $1.50 versus $5 for single orders.
Users search for healthy meal options
Over time, more and more people are trying to eat healthier. 80%+ of users don't feel like they eat healthier when they get food delivered compared to when they cook.
81% of people believe Meal Kits are healthier than prepared food from grocery stores.
Users want more convenience
Millennials exhibit a strong preference for convenience, spending the least amount of time preparing food compared to other generations. 66% of Millennials reported buying prepared food within 7 days prior.
A batch of Packaged Meals typically takes 2-3 minutes to heat up and can last 5-7 days in the refrigerator. This extended shelf life reduces food waste by 60% and improves inventory turnover significantly.
Sources: 1. United States Department of Agriculture, 2. Uber Eats Harris Poll 3. Harris Poll, 4. Freshly
USER JOURNEY
In general, the ordering process is very similar between Uber Eats and Packaged Meal services like Freshly.
The main difference is the time it takes for the food to arrive. This creates an opportunity for scheduled delivery windows (6-8 AM, 8-10 AM, 4-6 PM) with 95% on-time SLA targets, similar to grocery delivery models.
Since Uber Eats is a marketplace, we should consider how Packaged Meals could affect other user groups
Packaged Meal Brands
Advantages
Lower CAC ($12 via Uber vs $45 direct acquisition)
Increased revenue from new distribution channel
Potential cost savings through Uber's delivery network and infrastructure
Risks / disadvantages
Technical integration with Uber Eats
Smaller margins for new users who may have joined in other ways
Lower ARPU (users may split meals between Restaurants, Groceries, Packaged Meals)
Sudden increase in demand, leading to difficulty fulfilling
Delivery Couriers
Advantages
New orders flowing in daily/weekly improving morning utilization from 35% to 60%
Risks / disadvantages
Potentially fewer overall orders, if frequent purchases consolidate multiple orders into packaged meal subscription
Package differences:
Heavier (ice packs & insulation) with need to maintain temperature during transit requiring insulated bags and temperature monitoring
Bigger (user could order up to 12 meals at once) 8-15 lbs vs 3-5 lbs typical
Distribution centers may not be in city centers, causing Couriers to travel farther
Restaurants & Grocery Stores
Advantages
Higher WAUs picking their Packaged Meals leading to more Restaurant & Grocery store impressions
Potentially higher number of Uber One members redeeming benefits with Restaurants & Grocery stores
Restaurants could offer their own packaged meal plans. 41% of consumers would be interested in meal kits from their favorite restaurants. (Source: Fundera by NerdWallet)
Risks / disadvantages
Packaged Meal orders may cannibalize total orders from Restaurants and Grocery stores estimated at 5% in base case with 12% net GMV growth
Fewer repeat customers because of additional cheaper option
“ Increase average orders per user per week by introducing Packaged Meals into the Uber Eats experience. ”
Target: AOPUPW from 2.3 to 2.7
MVP – Top 3 Must-Haves
1. Schedule
Users can schedule a batch of packaged meals to be delivered a few days in the future.
Order Types: Batch Subscription or Batch Single Order
Fulfillment Options:
Brand: Uber wouldn't be involved in fulfillment, just the ordering experience. Orders would be fulfilled by existing methods (Fedex, UPS, etc.) Results in $11.25 contribution per order (15% take rate) but 2-5 day delivery
Uber: To transport meals from the cooking center to the distribution center in a target city, the Uber Freight network can be utilized. Local Uber couriers can be tasked with picking up and delivering the batches of meals based on a predetermined schedule. To optimize the process, the Logistics team can work with the couriers to route them to the distribution center on their way into the city centers from their homes. This ensures that the delivery process is both efficient and timely. Additionally, to minimize waste, Uber couriers can be provided with reusable ice packs that they can return to the distribution center after each delivery. Results in $10.25 contribution per order but enables same-day delivery
A Batch Subscription that is fulfilled by Uber has the highest business impact, best user experience, and benefits the delivery couriers.
1. Upstream: Uber Freight → DC
This is the first leg of the journey:
What happens: Packaged meal companies (like Freshly) prepare meals at their production facilities
Transportation: Uber Freight's trucking network picks up pallets of meals
Volume: Typically 2-3 full truckloads per week per DC
Distance: Often 200-500 miles from production to city DC
Temperature: Refrigerated trucks maintaining 32-39°F
Think of it like: Factory in New Jersey → Uber Freight truck → Denver distribution center
2. Storage: 72-Hour Inventory
Why 72 hours specifically:
Monday delivery: Meals arrive at DC Thursday/Friday
Buffer time: Allows for sorting, quality checks, and route planning
Space allocation:
60% refrigerated (32-39°F) for fresh meals
40% frozen (-10-0°F) for longer shelf-life items
Inventory turns: 2x per week (much faster than traditional warehouses)
3. Last-Mile: Morning Courier Routes
The final delivery:
Timing: 6-10 AM delivery windows (when restaurants are closed)
Route design: Each courier gets 8-12 deliveries in a geographic cluster
Distance: Typically 15-25 miles total per route
Equipment: Insulated bags with gel packs to maintain temperature
Real-World Example
Let's say you're a Denver courier on Monday morning:
Packaged Meal Subscriptions by Uber Eats
Handed
to You
Schedule a delivery time when you know you'll be home, ensuring your food stays safe. 95% on-time delivery within 2-hour windows
Healthy
Options
Balance your diet with healthy, diet-specific Packaged Meal subscriptions.
Cost
Effective
Save money by using Uber's delivery network to fulfill your packaged meals.
Uber Eats couriers keeps gel icepacks for reuse in future orders.ns.
Pilot Metrics
NORTH STAR METRIC
Average Orders Per User Per Week
If successful, we should see an increased Average Order Per User Per Week value because Uber Eats users are ordering more meals throughout the week.
Formula: AOPUPW = Total_orders_week / Active_users_week
We will compute AOPUPW over 12 weeks using user_weekly.csv. (provided by Uni) Pilot beats control by ≥ +0.4 orders/week, hitting 2.3 → 2.7 (+17%).
LEADING INDICATORS
Packaged Meal Brand Impressions
Packaged Meal Funnel Conversion Rate
New Packaged Meal Subscriptions Per Week Target: 30% conversion within 6 months
LAGGING INDICATORS
3 Month User Retention
ARPU Per Month
Average Restaurant Orders Per Week
Average Grocery Store Orders Per Week
Counter Metrics
One potential unintended side effect of offering Packaged Meals is that Uber Eats users order fewer times at Restaurants and Grocery Stores (because they are getting more cheap meals with a Packaged Meal subscription.
This could result in Restaurant and Grocery Store partners leaving Uber Eats which would be very detrimental to the Marketplace. We should monitor these metrics closely. Alert threshold: >10% decline in restaurant frequency
MONITORING METRICS
Packaged Meal Subscription Start Error Rate
Number of Daily "0 meals available" Error
Packaged Meal Order Send Error Rate
These error-related metrics will help us quickly identify if we need to fix a core part of the Packaged Meal flow. Whether it's starting a subscription, if we end up offering 0 meals to users, or if we can't properly send orders to our Packaged Meal partners.
Introducing Packaged Meals on Uber Eats could boost retention by offering affordable, convenient, and healthy options. Unlike UPS/FedEx delivery, Uber Eats can leverage its infrastructure to create a seamless experience and capture value.
As a Product Manager while doing Ops at Uber, I would recommend conducting a tests in a specific market to evaluate the impact of introducing Packaged Meals on the identified north star metric: Average Orders Per Week Per User. This would provide valuable insights into the viability of this addition to the Uber Eats ecosystem and inform future expansion decisions. ROI projection: $2M pilot investment with 8-month payback period based on 20% contribution margins.
What I learned
As someone who orders food delivery multiple times a week, I was most surprised to find out through this Case Study that other people don't do the same. 😂
If you made it all the way to the end of this, thank you very much for reading!
